Meeting Overview
Easter Saturday at Ellerslie on a Soft 5 — rain-affected but raceable. Two Group 3s headline: the Trelawney Stud Championship Stakes over 2100m (Race 6) and the Manco Easter HCP over 1600m (Race 7). Proven soft-ground form is the filter across the card.
Trelawney Stud Championship Stakes (G3) — Race 6
There's genuine pace on paper. Celtic Tycoon ($12.00, Corentin Berge, barrier 15, 57kg — Shaun & Emma Clotworthy) presses forward with Side Winkers added after winning Pukekohe 1400m Soft5 in March and running 3rd at Ellerslie 1600m Soft5 last start (+0.47L). La Diem ($15.00, Joe Doyle, barrier 13, 55kg — Stephen Marsh) also pushes to the front with blinkers on; won Ellerslie 1600m Soft5 last start.
Off that contested tempo, Solid Gold ($2.90, George Rooke, barrier 3, 55kg — Roger James & Robert Wellwood) is the clear form pick — last-start Ellerslie 1600m Soft5 winner, settles just 2 lengths off the lead and steps to 2100m with a HR of 1527. The one the market has badly wrong is She Suits Herself ($20.00, Masa Hashizume, barrier 4, 55kg — Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson): HR 1554 is the highest figure in the race, she presses forward, and she's already won over 2100m on Soft5 at Pukekohe last start. Glance ($3.20, Michael McNab, barrier 2, 55kg — Stephen Marsh) settles midfield around 5 lengths off the lead — two career starts, one maiden win at 1400m — the step to G3 2100m is a serious query. Solid Gold to confirm favouritism; She Suits Herself is the each-way value the market is leaving on the table.
Hawk's Angle
Seven horses on today's card came off the Te Rapa program this morning in Heavy 9 conditions: Altari and Gippsy God (Race 1), Sir Richie (Race 3), Egyptian Queen and Celestial Wonder (Race 4), Dream Of The Moon and Vieni Su (Race 8). A Heavy 9 run in under 24 hours is a genuine question mark against all of them. I'm marking all seven down until they prove otherwise — and they're all short enough in the market that you can find better.
Blackbook
Omega Boy — HR 1660 is the highest figure on the card; three wins on the bounce before Trentham and Opie Bosson back up in Race 7.
Hawk's Tip
Omega Boy — Race 7, 1 unit @ $9.50 The ratings don't lie and three wins don't either — Trentham was an aberration, not a trend.
Tally: 0 from 1 (0% strike) · -1.0 units · ROI -100%