Nine races at Ellerslie on Saturday. The track should be a Good 3 or 4 depending on irrigation, with the rail out 8.5m for all races. I’ve zeroed in on R3, R4 and R8 here, but there’s action right through the card.
R3 — Auckland Co-op Taxis Handicap 2200m (HCP)
Maldini ($5.00) (Tony Pike) is the horse my numbers keep bringing me back to. His HR is 1612, the highest in the field, and his recent runs back that up. Sam McNab claims 2kg, bringing the carried weight to 52kg, and from barrier 7 he should land with cover in midfield. His sectionals at Tauranga on 20 March were 35.03/23.35/12.13 over 2100m on Good 4, and he won over 2400m at Trentham in December with 36.18/23.76/12.12. He keeps finding the line.
Clownfish also likes He's A Battler ($11.00) (Suzy Gordon). Warren Kennedy rides from barrier 2 with 55.5kg, and he should settle worse than midfield, a few lengths off the lead. The form reads 13180, and the win in that sequence came here at Ellerslie over this trip. At the price, he is the runner the model wants me to respect.
High Country ($3.60) (Tony Pike) brings the second-best HR in the race at 1609. Joe Doyle rides from barrier 8 with 54kg, and he should be one of the runners pressing forward early. If he gets an uncontested run near the speed, he is the obvious danger.
How I expect the race to play out: High Country rolls forward, Giacomo uses barrier 1, and Maldini lands one-out with cover, likely three pairs back rather than right on top of the speed. If the tempo is genuine, Maldini is the one I want charging late.
R4 — MyRacehorse 1600 (3YO)
This is the feature and it is the race I want to play.
Burnerphone ($3.70) (Benjamin King) gets Craig Grylls from barrier 6 with 55kg and should be right on the speed. She won this track and trip in January, then came back and ran second in the Windsor Park Stud 3YO Trophy here on 7 March. That is the cleanest exposed form in the race.
But the horse I keep landing on is Glance ($3.70) (Stephen Marsh). Michael McNab rides from barrier 7 with 55kg, and she is likely to settle near the back, several lengths off the lead. That is the risk. The upside is the engine: her debut win at Pukekohe over 1400m on 25 February was electrifying, producing 33.18/22.09/11.40. That is the best late split profile in this field.
The race shape is what makes her dangerous. Celtic Tycoon ($8.00) (Shaun & Emma Clotworthy, barrier 9, Masa Hashizume) wants to roll forward. Trafalgar ($11.00) (Cody Cole, barrier 2, Samantha Collett) wants the same. Burnerphone will not hand it to them either. Three horses wanting the top over 1600m on a Good track usually gives the swooper a good chance.
If Glance gets clear air at the right time, she is the one I want. If she doesn't, Burnerphone is the obvious saver.
R8 — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Handicap 1300m (HCP)
This is the race where the market says plenty can win, and I agree.
Clownfish keeps bringing up Master Fay ($7.00) (Chad Ormsby) as the horse to beat. He carries 61.5kg from barrier 5 and gets a run just off midfield.
My eye keeps drifting to Old Bill Bone ($7.00) (Cody Cole). Samantha Collett rides from barrier 1 with 54kg, and he should get a soft run in midfield, a few lengths off the lead. His last few closing splits have held up well across different conditions: 35.42/23.65/11.75 on Heavy 8, then 34.88/22.89/11.76 on Soft 5. At 1300m, the inside draw matters more than it does at the mile here, so barrier 1 is a real positive.
The horse with the strongest raw figure in the race is Cannon Hill ($7.00) (Tony Pike). His HR is 1643, comfortably the best of these. Opie Bosson rides from barrier 13 with 57.5kg, and he should settle just off the pace rather than lead. The knock is obvious: he has to overcome the gate and his recent form has been mixed. But if you forgive the Heavy 8 run at Matamata, he is right in this.
At the longer price, Moschino ($12.00) (Margaret Falconer) is the value runner. Corentin Berge rides with 54kg from barrier 9, and his 20 March run over 1400m on Good 4 produced 33.63/22.35/11.73. That is the sort of late split that puts him in the finish.
Blackbook
No runners this week — Shining Pearl, Omega Boy and Cheerio all miss the meeting.
Hawk's Tip
Glance (R4) — 1 unit
One start, one big late split, and a race shape that should give her every chance to arrive over the top. I am happy to trust what I saw.
Hawk's tally: Listening was beaten at Pukekohe, so the record sits at 0 from 1 (0% strike rate) · −1.0 units · ROI −100%. Glance goes in as pending.
Hawk's Ratings and Clownfish selections generated by Hawkr's racing intelligence engine. Register for early access to see the numbers before the race, not after.